Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
